Despite lagging performance, California expected to avoid recession Los Angeles Times

Table Of Content

• Column: California’s budget relies on the richest taxpayers, and we’re paying the price
• These are the California cities where $150,000 still buys you a home. Could you live here?
• Order takeout food online
• Column: California’s population is on the rise. So much for the claims of the state’s demise
• Google parent reports another quarter of accelerating growth and its stock price soars
• HYBE, Home Of BTS, Says It Will Contact Police About Executives From Subsidiary Label After Audit

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Column: California’s budget relies on the richest taxpayers, and we’re paying the price

The state accounts for about 20% of the nation’s jobless claims, far in excess of its 11% share of the labor force population. That partly reflects the state’s higher unemployment and accompanying increases in layoffs and jobless claims in the tech industry and other sectors, but also its comparatively easier eligibility rules and low re-employment rate. Payroll taxes paid by employers are rising not only to cover payouts to unemployed workers but also a state surcharge and a gradually increasing federal surtax to help pay off the principal on the debt.

These are the California cities where $150,000 still buys you a home. Could you live here?

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In March, the state added 28,300 net new jobs — about 9% of the nation’s total, shy of its 11.5% share of the U.S. labor force. In February, California lost 6,600 jobs while the U.S. added 270,000. About 90% of homeowners, in fact, are carrying home loans with rates below 5%, said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the accounting firm RSM US. Traub, of the National Employment Law Project, said employers have to pay more to make the math work and ensure the unemployment trust system is sustainable over the long haul.

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They argue that it will only add to the state’s already higher business costs that have pushed some California companies to relocate to Texas, Nevada and other states. But major sectors of the economy, including information, business and professional services, and manufacturing, have lost jobs over the last year. In March, job growth in California continued to be led by gains in health services and private education. Over the last year, that combined sector has accounted for more than 80% of the state’s added jobs totaling 217,700. That’s followed by growth in government, construction, and leisure and hospitality. For the second month in a row, California posted the highest unemployment rate in the country, according to new data for March.

Column: California’s population is on the rise. So much for the claims of the state’s demise

The nation’s gross domestic product, or total economic output, likely expanded by a robust 3% in the first quarter, according to analysts’ forecasts. In California that year, 47% of recipients took the full maximum 26 weeks of jobless benefits. In 2022, California workers stayed on unemployment aid for an average of 18.1 weeks, compared with 14.5 weeks nationally, according to a study by the Department of Labor’s former lead actuary, Robert Pavosevich.

To keep the safety-net program operating at a time when the taxes paid by employers and earmarked for jobless benefits are insufficient, Sacramento has been borrowing billions of dollars from the federal government. The debt now stands at about $21 billion and growing, an increasing burden for state deficit fighters and for the businesses that pay into the jobless insurance program. But by far the main policy change that’s needed is to help jobless workers move into new jobs more rapidly. California’s Employment Development Department, which oversees the state’s unemployment insurance program, has said that it would rely on increased federal taxes on employers to pay down the debt.

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An economic downturn in the state, marked by a falloff in technology investment and rising overall unemployment, has resulted in unprecedented shortfalls in tax revenues. State legislative analysts were careful not to criticize policy choices made during the extraordinarily uncertain times. Seoul's history traces back to 18 BC when it was founded by the people of Baekje, one of the Three Kingdoms of Korea. During the Joseon dynasty, Seoul was officially designated as the capital, surrounded by the Fortress Wall of Seoul. In the early 20th century, Seoul was occupied by the Japanese Empire, temporarily renamed "Gyeongseong." The Korean War brought fierce battles, with Seoul changing hands four times and leaving the city mostly in ruins.

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He said higher employer payroll taxes will ultimately spill over to employees in the form of less wages. California’s massive budget deficit, coupled with the state’s relatively high level of joblessness, has become a major barrier to reducing the billions of dollars of debt it has incurred to pay unemployment benefits. Currently California employers pay a federal unemployment insurance tax of 1.2% on the first $7,000 of wages per employee, but that will rise incrementally every year so long as California is in debt, to more than 3.5% after 10 years. And analysts estimate that it may take at least that long to pay off the debt. Data also show that jobless workers in California stay on unemployment significantly longer than the national average, which adds to the total payout amount. And California workers claim unemployment benefits in disproportionately high numbers.

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When COVID struck in March 2020, U.S. unemployment jumped to 14.8% a month later and brought unprecedented jobless claims, forcing California and many other states to borrow from the federal government to keep paying benefits. Almost all the other states have since repaid those loans, some with pandemic relief money they also got from Washington. Businesses also pay a state unemployment insurance tax, also on the first $7,000 of wages, based on their layoff history, plus a surcharge when there’s a shortfall in the jobless benefits fund. “California had options and it chose the spending option instead of the responsible option,” said Matt Weidinger, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who has written widely on the unemployment insurance program.

“California is going to muddle through until we begin to see those rates eased,” Brusuelas said. So even though more consumers in California are having trouble with credit card debt, data show mortgage delinquencies remain very low. “In general, housing often functions as a trigger or force multiplier in a recession in California,” said G.U. Don Lee writes economic stories out of Washington, D.C. Since joining the Los Angeles Times in 1992, he has served as the Shanghai bureau chief and in various editing and reporting roles in California.

Under such budget constraints, California officials had little choice but to pull back on plans to spend $1 billion to reduce the principal on the unemployment insurance loan. Despite the immediate hiring doldrums, the state’s budget woes — including costs for unemployment claims — and stubbornly high inflation, experts think California will not fall into a recession or lead the country into a downturn. California’s jobless rate remained steady at 5.3% last month, even as unemployment for the nation ticked down to 3.8% in March.

And it was one of only two states, the other being Nevada, with a March jobless rate above 5%, said the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Sacramento collects unemployment insurance taxes on the first $7,000 of wages per employee per year. Traub noted that most other states have a significantly higher taxable wage limit — New York at $12,500; New Mexico at $31,700; and Washington state, the highest, at $68,500. But over the last 12 months, the high-paying sector is down 30,600 jobs in L.A.